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ANALYSIS

October 22 - 29, 2004

   
Region: Corruption report card
According to Transparency International’s 2004 rankings, 10 out of 25 Latin American countries suffer from “rampant corruption”, and most of the rest fare little better.
   
Venezuela: Finance outlook
Robust oil prices are supporting the stockmarket, but realisation that President Hugo Chavez’s populist policies will endure into the foreseeable future has removed the impetus for a continued rally.
   
USA: Bush again?
Despite a tightening of the US presidential race, the Economist Intelligence Unit continues to believe that George Bush stands the better chance of victory, albeit slim one.
   
USA: Steady economic growth
The US economy grew by 3.7% in the third quarter, below market expectations but exactly in line with our forecast. We expect the economy to start slowing as interest rates rise and tax cuts disappear.
   
China: Interest rates rise
China's surprise interest-rate hike on October 28th was symbolically important, indicating a willingness to adopt for the first time in the current economic cycle an economy-wide approach to policy tightening.
   
EU: The end of the beginning
EU leaders gathered in Rome on October 29th for the signing of the new constitution. But before it can enter into force, the constitution needs to be ratified by all 25 member states. This is unlikely to happen.
   
Middle East: Fading icon
As doctors tend to Yasser Arafat, the question of succession is becoming urgent. A comparable figure is unlikely to emerge, but neither is a descent into chaos on the cards. RiskWire examines the issues.

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